"The Koufax Curse"?!

Like many other Boomers, at some point in my teen years I learned the story of how one of baseball's greatest pitchers, Sandy Koufax, sat out Game One of the 1965 World Series because it fell on the day (evening) of Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement (Kol Nidre). Held up as an exemplar of one who took seriously his religious commitment, Koufax's decision was celebrated then (recall that this was the still the world of Will Herberg's "Protestant-Catholic-Jew") and now, according to Howard Wasserman.

You can download Wasserman's article, Testing the Koufax Curse: How 18 Jewish Pitchers, 18 Jewish Hitters, and Rod Carew Performed on on Kippur, by going here. Cribbing the abstract:

October 8-9, 2019, the Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur, marked a unique moment in the history of baseball and American Judaism. Three Major League post-season games began between sundown Tuesday and sundown Wednesday. One team in each game featured a Jewish player as a star or significant contributor. Each Jewish player appeared in the game. Each team lost. One journalist labeled this result the "Koufax Curse" -- the curse of the Jewish player who plays on Yom Kippur, rather than following in the footsteps of Hall-of-Fame pitcher Sandy Koufax, who did not pitch Game One of the 1965 World Series when it fell on the holy day.

This paper empirically tests the Koufax Curse. Looking at 18 Jewish Major Leaguers since 1966 (the year after Koufax's career-defining game), the paper charts how the players and their teams performed in games played during any part of Yom Kippur. It also examines statistics for Rod Carew, the Hall-of-Famer who is not Jewish but enjoys a unique familial and cultural connection to Judaism. From this, we can measure whether players or teams are haunted by the Koufax Curse. And whether Yom Kippur 5780 was an anomaly or reflects a broader trend. 

Like many baseball-themed pieces, Wasserman's is something of a paen to the Game itself. But it is much more. From it I learned a great deal of the the post-Koufax history of Jews in baseball and indeed how the current era is a gilter alten of Jewish baseball. Yet, in contrast to their famous predecessor, 

Fifteen Jewish players spent all or part of 2019 in the Major Leagues, including several regulars and top performers, one all-star, and the 2019 American League MVP runner-up in [Alex] Bregman. Despite this influx of Jewish talent and media and internet awareness of that heritage, however, fewer star Jewish players intentionally and publicly skip games for Yom Kippur.

Even more than a reflection on changing Jewish mores (and the revenue-driven changes in baseball's schedule that ensures that no World Series or even LCS game will begin on Yom Kippur), Wasserman's is a work of serious analytic scholarship. In a series of tables Wasserman analyzes team success when their Jewish player plays on Yom Kippur, (worse than average)  when their Jewish players do not play on Yom Kippur, the combined performance of Jewish players who play on Yom Kippur (better than average), the performance of individual players, and much more.

Wasserman's conclusions:

On one hand,

At the individual level, the answer appears to be no. As a group, Yom Kippur numbers for position players outstrip their career averages; they hit for higher average, if limited power and run production, in a limited sample. Numbers for most position players are higher on Kol Nidre—a game unquestionably on the holy day—than games during the following day or evenings. Pitcher performances have been mixed, with some poor games balanced by several good starts and a few good relief appearances.

On the other,

At the team level, however, something strange happens. Teams are 18 games under .500 in all Yom Kippur games, including 10 games under on Kol Nidre. When a Jewish player plays, their teams are the equivalent of a 68-94 team. The events of October 2019 (Yom Kippur 5780), with which the article began, reflect this trend. Neither Bregman nor Pederson played poorly. Bregman had one hit in four at-bats and made some plays in the field, but the Astros surrendered three runs in the first inning. Pederson had two hits, including a double that was initially ruled a home run, scored one run, and made two plays in the outfield, but the bullpen blew a late lead. Fried did not pitch well in surrendering four runs in an inning-plus of work, but the game was lost before he entered. In other words, any curse appears to target not Jewish players, but their non-Jewish teammates, with consequences befalling the team as a whole. 

The bottom line:

The best answer may be that no one should play on Yom Kippur, at least not teams with Jewish players. Like public schools or the Supreme Court, everyone should benefit from the day off that the Hebrew calendar and a Jewish population offers. Jews can recommit to their faith. And everyone can be ready to play the following day.